"China’s Population Decline and Aging Pose Constraints in Power Competition with US" - US AEI

There is an analysis suggesting that China’s declining population and aging demographics could become constraints in the global power competition. If China maintains its current birth rate, the country’s median age is projected to reach 52 by 2050, and one out of every three people will be over 65, which is expected to burden the economy.

Nicholas Eberstadt, a researcher at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), made this point in an article titled “China’s Coming Population Crash Scrambles the Global Balance of Power,” published on March 6 (local time).

The Chinese government implemented the “one-child policy” for 35 years, from 1980 to 2015. As the birth rate began to fall sharply in the 2010s, China fully adopted the “two-child policy” in 2016, and further eased restrictions in 2021 by allowing three children, effectively ending the one-child policy.

However, after a temporary and slight increase in the number of births in 2016, the downward trend resumed. The number of newborns dropped from 18.3 million in 2016 to 8.9 million in 2023, halving in just seven years. In 2025, the number is projected to fall to 7.92 million, dropping below 8 million and representing less than 40% of the figure from nine years earlier.

China entered a phase of population decline in 2021, and the gap between births and deaths continues to widen. The United Nations forecasts that by 2050, there will be more than 2.3 deaths for every birth in China. The country’s total population, currently about 1.4 billion, is expected to decrease by 150 million by 2050.

China’s working-age population (ages 15 to 64) peaked more than a decade ago, and has since been declining by about 1% annually. By 2050, it could decrease by more than 25% compared to today, which means the working-age population will shrink by around 250 million. The 18- to 23-year-old age group, which supplies military personnel, is expected to be less than half its current size by 2050.

Ultra-low birth rates lead to the problem of rapid aging. In 2050, China’s median age is projected to be 52, one in three people will be aged 65 or older, and one in ten will be aged 80 or older. These demographic shifts will weaken China’s economic growth capacity. Considering changes in family structure, the problem becomes even more serious. Patterns such as “only children having only children” are emerging, and future generations are likely to grow up without siblings, cousins, aunts, or uncles.

Eberstadt stated, “Until recently, it was widely believed that China’s economy would eventually overtake that of the United States, but since its competitors do not face such severe demographic challenges, the population issue could cause China to lose its opportunity to challenge for global supremacy.” He added, “The Chinese government may try to offset these demographic headwinds by investing heavily in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics, and by expanding public education and vocational training, but other competing countries can adopt similar policies as well.”

Yonhap News Agency

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.