'"A Horrific Scenario Has Emerged," Experts Warn..."Bitcoin Could Fall Below 65,000 Dollars" [Bitcoin Now]'

72% Chance of Bitcoin Falling Below 70,000 Dollars Next Month

Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest level since U.S. President Donald Trump took office. Experts say Bitcoin has lost its appeal as a hedging tool against risk and predict that further declines will be inevitable for the time being.

According to U.S. prediction market platform Polymarket on the 5th, the probability that Bitcoin will fall to 65,000 dollars (about 9,498,450,000 won) this year stands at 82%. Global virtual asset market data site CoinMarketCap showed that as of 9:45 a.m. on the same day, Bitcoin was trading at 72,942 dollars, down 3.99% from 24 hours earlier, which is about 10% higher than the 65,000-dollar level.

Polymarket also sees a high likelihood that it will drop below 65,000 dollars. The probability that Bitcoin will close below 55,000 dollars has surged to 60%, while the probability that it will recover to 100,000 dollars has fallen to 54%, down from 80% at the beginning of the year. Polymarket is a platform that shows the market-implied probability of specific events occurring, based on the outcome of bets placed on whether those events will happen.

Bitcoin’s current price is more than 42% below its all-time high of over 126,000 dollars reached in October last year. It is the lowest level since November 6, 2024, the day after President Trump was re-elected. Bloomberg News assessed that in the course of this decline, Bitcoin has lost both its upward momentum and its status as a hedging instrument.

The bearish outlook for Bitcoin is even more pronounced in short-term contracts. In Polymarket’s February market, the probability that Bitcoin will trade below 70,000 dollars through March 1 is seen at 72%, more than 35 percentage points higher than at the beginning of this month. This reflects traders’ real-time pessimism, as doubts deepen across the market amid outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a breakdown in macroeconomic correlations.

Ilan Solot, senior analyst at Marex Solutions, said, “Bitcoin has recently failed to play the role of a safe asset,” adding, “It basically reflects the current pessimistic sentiment in the market.”

Andrew Tu, head of business development at Efficient Frontier, said, “With the market having been shaken hard over the past week, investor sentiment in the virtual asset market is currently in a state of ‘extreme fear,’” and added, “If Bitcoin fails to hold the 72,000-dollar level, there is a very high possibility that it will fall to around 68,000 dollars.” He went on to say, “It could even be pushed down to the lows seen in 2024.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.