US Unemployment Indicators Remain Stable During Shutdown... 232,000 Jobless Claims

Delayed Release: Partial Disclosure of Unemployment Claim Data

During the temporary federal government shutdown in mid-October, the number of unemployment benefit claims in the United States remained at a low level.

According to weekly unemployment benefit claim statistics released by the U.S. Department of Labor on November 18 (local time), the number of new unemployment benefit claims in the United States for the week of October 12 to 18 was tallied at 232,000.

Reuters Yonhap News

The average number of claims for the previous four weeks, from August 24 to September 30, was 237,000. There was little change in the number of new unemployment benefit claims even during the shutdown period.

The number of continuing unemployment benefit claims-filed by those who have been unemployed for more than two weeks-stood at 1,957,000 for the week of October 12 to 18, which was only a slight increase compared to the previous four-week average of 1,927,000.

The Department of Labor's unemployment benefit claim statistics are a highly volatile weekly indicator. However, as they quickly reflect changes in the U.S. employment situation, they are among the economic indicators closely watched by Wall Street.

The Department of Labor typically releases these statistics every Thursday morning. However, due to the shutdown, the department had not released any unemployment benefit claim statistics since the September 25 release. On this day, without any prior notice or explanation, only the statistics for the week of October 12 to 18 were updated.

Although this is only a fragmentary one-week data set, the updated statistics suggest that the U.S. unemployment rate remained stable through mid-October without significant layoffs.

Carl Weinberg, Chief Economist at High Frequency Economics, said, "There is no evidence in this report to support the widely circulated claim that layoffs surged during the shutdown period. This will provide relief to the market and is likely to lower expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December."

Meanwhile, the monthly employment indicator compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and released on November 6 also showed the October unemployment rate at 4.36%, similar to September's 4.35%.

Separately, the Department of Labor plans to release the September employment report, which was delayed due to the shutdown, on November 20. Kevin Hassett, Chairman of the White House National Economic Council (NEC), has indicated that the September employment report will be a "partial report" that does not include unemployment rate statistics.