[News in War History] 'Geonham Competition' Resumed After 100 Years Amid China's Ocean Ambition

China's 350 Warships Surpass US 290
'Shipbuilding Race' Since WWI Resurfaces
India, Japan Join Competition... Territorial Disputes Expand

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

As China's third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, embarks on its maiden sea trial, voices of warning are growing both inside and outside the U.S. political sphere. With China already constructing its fourth aircraft carrier and reports indicating that the total number of Chinese naval vessels surpasses that of the U.S., a heated shipbuilding competition between the two countries is expected to intensify.

As the shipbuilding race among great powers, reminiscent of the period around World War I, resumes after 100 years, concerns are rising that military tensions across the East Asian maritime region near China will significantly escalate. In this segment, we will explore China's naval power enhancement, the responses from the U.S. and its allies, and also delve into the history of the shipbuilding competition from a century ago.

China's 3rd Aircraft Carrier Sets Sail for First Time... "China Surpasses U.S. in Number of Warships"

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Let's start with the news. On the 1st, China's state-run Xinhua News Agency reported that the Fujian, China's third aircraft carrier, departed from the Jiangnan Shipyard in Shanghai to begin its first sea trial. The Chinese military plans to continue the trial until the 9th, assessing safety, performance, and combat operational capabilities.

Xinhua proudly stated, "With a displacement of 80,000 tons, the Fujian has become the largest warship by displacement in Asia, surpassing not only the Chinese navy but also Japan's World War II Yamato battleship (65,000 tons)." The Fujian, reportedly modeled after the U.S. Gerald R. Ford, employs an electromagnetic catapult system and can carry over 70 aircraft, significantly enhancing its operational capabilities.

Already, warnings are pouring in from U.S. political circles that China's maritime rise could shake the U.S. Navy's previously unrivaled position in Asia. Bloomberg News pointed out, "China possesses a total of 350 warships, compared to the U.S.'s 290," and noted, "In the event of a conflict in the South China Sea, the U.S. could be at a disadvantage."

Of course, it remains difficult for the Chinese navy to surpass the U.S. Navy, which includes 11 carrier strike groups and has extensive combat experience. However, U.S. deterrence in the South China Sea is perceived as being under threat. While U.S. carrier strike groups are dispersed worldwide, the Chinese navy is concentrated near its own coastline. If a localized conflict breaks out, such as a war with Taiwan, it is believed that the U.S. naval forces deployed in the Asia region alone may struggle to defeat the Chinese forces.

Shipbuilding Competition Resumes After 100 Years Since World War I

The Washington Naval Conference, held in Washington DC, USA, from 1921 to 1922, where major powers gathered for naval disarmament. [Image source=U.S. Library of Congress]

In response, voices within the U.S. are already calling for a significant increase in naval budgets to accelerate shipbuilding efforts starting now. There is a sense of urgency that the U.S. must at least not fall behind China in the total number of warships. Should the two countries enter a shipbuilding race, it is feared that a new competition will begin for the first time in about 100 years since World War I.

The history of shipbuilding competition originally intensified from the late 19th century. At that time, the German Empire, an emerging power in Europe, engaged in a national effort to compete with the traditional naval powerhouse, the United Kingdom. Under the command of Admiral Alfred von Tirpitz, then Secretary of the Imperial Naval Office, Germany enacted the 'Fleet Acts' five times between 1898 and 1912 to expand its navy.

Not to be outdone, the UK began strengthening the Royal Navy from 1902 and launched the unprecedentedly large battleship HMS Dreadnought in 1906, entering the shipbuilding race. This situation intensified the arms race between the 'Triple Entente' of the UK, France, and Russia, and the 'Triple Alliance' of Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Italy, a rivalry that is considered one of the causes of World War I.

Following World War I, naval disarmament conferences such as the Washington Naval Treaty (1921-1922) and the London Naval Treaty (1930) were held. However, these disarmament agreements ultimately failed, leading to the outbreak of World War II.

During the Cold War, a fierce arms race occurred again between the Western bloc led by the U.S. and the Eastern bloc led by the Soviet Union, followed by renewed disarmament agreements after the Soviet Union's collapse in the 1990s. However, around Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the arms control agreements that had lasted for about 30 years effectively collapsed. Thus, shipbuilding competition and arms control have repeatedly occurred throughout history.

Asian Neighbors Including India and Japan Join the Competition... Territorial Disputes Intensify

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

As the U.S. and China openly engage in a shipbuilding competition, this arms race is spreading beyond the two countries to the entire Asian region. India and Japan, which face intensified territorial disputes amid China's naval expansion, are actively expanding their military capabilities.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India's military expenditure last year increased by 3.7% from the previous year to $70.3 billion (approximately 97 trillion KRW), ranking fourth after the U.S. ($916 billion), China ($296 billion), and Russia ($109 billion). Saudi Arabia, the dominant Middle Eastern country, ranked fifth with $70.2 billion, while Japan ($50.2 billion) and South Korea ($47.9 billion) ranked tenth and eleventh, respectively.

With major regional powers neighboring China joining the U.S.-China arms race, military tensions across the entire East Asian maritime region are expected to rise further. It is hoped that the reckless shipbuilding competition will not repeat the past failures that ultimately led to world wars.