[News in War History] The Land of World Wars, Why Europe Suffers from Shell Shortages

Ammunition Stockpile Depleted for Ukraine Support
Concerns Grow Over Russian Escalation... "Weapon Shortage"
Cold War Soviet 'Red Scare' Resurfaces?

[Image source=AP·Yonhap News]

As the war in Ukraine enters its third year, news that Europe’s stockpile of artillery shells has been depleted is spreading security concerns across European countries. Regardless of how the war in Ukraine ends, the confrontation with Russia is inevitable, and it is feared that it will take more than 10 years to replenish the artillery shells, which are the core of conventional military power. This has raised concerns about the threat of Russian aggression.

Additionally, in the upcoming U.S. presidential election this November, Donald Trump, the former president and a leading candidate of the Republican Party, has been pressuring European NATO countries to increase their defense spending, further heightening security concerns. How did Europe, which produced and consumed the most artillery shells worldwide during World Wars I and II, come to worry about a shortage of shells?

Europe’s Artillery Shells Depleted by Support for Ukraine... "It May Take 10 Years to Replenish"

On the 12th (local time), German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (center), Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen (right), and Armin Papperger, CEO of Germany's Rheinmetall, attended the groundbreaking ceremony for Rheinmetall's new ammunition factory in Unterl?ß, Lower Saxony. [Photo by EPA·Yonhap News]

Armin Papperger, CEO of Germany's Rheinmetall AG, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen attended the groundbreaking ceremony for Rheinmetall's new ammunition factory held in Unterl?ß, Germany, on February 12, 2024.

Let’s start with the news. On the 12th (local time), according to the British BBC, Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall, stated at the groundbreaking ceremony of a new ammunition factory in Unterl?ß, Lower Saxony, "It will take a long time to prepare for attackers who want to fight NATO. It will take 10 years for Europe to fully replenish its artillery shell stockpile."

CEO Papperger said, "A huge amount of shells has been sent to Ukraine, leaving almost no stock left. Europe needs to produce 1.5 million shells," adding, "We must help Ukraine during the war, but it will take 10 years to replenish ammunition stocks." Rheinmetall is a German defense company and the largest manufacturer of weapons and military supplies in Europe. It is unusual for a defense company CEO to issue a warning that Europe’s artillery shell reserves have run dry.

The analysis that it will take 10 years to replenish artillery shell stockpiles has raised concerns about whether Europe will have the power to stop a possible Russian invasion. Recently, the Estonian Intelligence Service released a report stating that Russia is highly likely to invade other European countries and clash with NATO within 10 years after the Ukraine war.

Sharp Decline in European Weapons After the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE)

In 1987, U.S. President Ronald Reagan (right) and Mikhail Gorbachev, General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, are signing the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF). [Image source=AP·Yonhap News]

How did Europe, once the gathering and consumption center of artillery shells during World Wars I and II, come to suffer from a shortage of conventional shells and weapons? To identify the main cause, we need to take a time machine back about 30 years to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

In 1987, then U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Soviet Communist Party General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev signed the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), which promised bilateral nuclear arms reductions. This was a signal marking the end of the Cold War nuclear standoff. Then, in 1990, the U.S.-led NATO and the Soviet-led Warsaw Pact signed the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE). These two treaties became symbolic pillars of the Cold War’s end.

The main point of the CFE was that NATO and Warsaw Pact member countries would maintain equal numbers of conventional weapons such as tanks, armored vehicles, artillery, fighter jets, and attack helicopters between the Atlantic Ocean and the Ural Mountains, and exchange information on weapon deployments. This limited the ability to launch surprise attacks with conventional forces like tanks.

Afterward, Europe’s production of conventional weapons and artillery shells sharply declined. By 2022, when the Ukraine war broke out, Europe’s total annual artillery shell production was only 300,000 rounds. Considering that North Korea’s annual shell production is estimated at about 2 million rounds, this is a drastically reduced amount.

Moreover, the CFE, once considered the last thread of goodwill between Europe and Russia, became null and void when Russia officially withdrew last November. NATO also declared it would no longer comply with the treaty, effectively ending its implementation. Europe has now returned to a Cold War-era arms race. European countries plan to increase shell production to 1 million rounds in the short term, but this is expected to be difficult.

Europe Fears Isolation After Trump’s Election... Will the 'Red Scare' Return?

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Another variable in European security is the U.S. presidential election, the largest ally. With Donald Trump, the current leading Republican candidate, likely to win the November election, European countries are on high alert.

Former President Trump has consistently accused NATO member countries of free-riding on security, demanding that European countries increase defense spending, and threatened that the U.S. would not help defend against Russian invasion if they do not comply. If he returns to power, pressure from the U.S. on NATO is expected to intensify.