[News in War History] Is the Worldwide Cold Snap Favoring Putin? ... The Cold Wave That Changed the Outcome

Failed Counterattack on Major Fronts Due to Ukraine's Heavy Snowfall
Roma, Who Made a Truce in Winter and Advanced in March
'Dongjanggun' Stirring the Battlefield Amid Intensifying Weather Anomalies

[Image source=AFP Yonhap News]

As the Arctic cold wave suddenly moved south amid climate anomalies caused by global warming, the entire world has frozen solid. Following the heavy snowfall that plagued Europe earlier this month, the cold wave has now engulfed not only South Korea but also southern China, covering East Asia. The front lines of the Ukraine war, now in its third year, have also completely stagnated due to heavy snow and storms.

The cold wave, commonly called 'Dongjanggun (冬將軍, General Winter),' has historically influenced the outcomes of numerous battles. From the Napoleonic Wars to World War II, Russia, which benefited greatly from the cold, is once again receiving help from the harsh winter in the current Ukraine war, likely impacting international power dynamics significantly.

In this segment, we will explore the history of Dongjanggun, which has shaken the course of wars, along with the current situation of the Ukraine conflict.

◆News: The Winter War Fully Begins on the Ukraine Front... Counteroffensive Fails

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Let's start with the news. According to CNN on the 22nd (local time), heavy snow and storms swept through eastern Ukraine in mid-month. The Ukrainian military's offensive, ongoing since July, has come to a halt. The front lines have completely stagnated without major changes. The Ukrainian forces now face the situation of having to prepare for winter and switch back to defense.

With the Ukrainian counteroffensive completely stopped, Western countries including the U.S. and Europe are beginning to judge that Ukraine has lost its momentum. CNN quoted officials from the U.S. and NATO allies saying, "It will be difficult for Ukraine to hold out without aid from the U.S. and NATO," and warned, "If the worst-case scenario materializes, Ukraine could be defeated by next summer."

Ukraine, with an estimated over 20 million citizens having fled abroad, is also facing a severe shortage of troops. With more than 300,000 casualties, the Ukrainian government has announced plans to conscript men currently overseas to fill the ranks. However, it remains uncertain how many will actually respond to this call.

◆History 1: 'Dongjanggun' Roars in the Late Little Ice Age of the 19th-20th Century... First Appearance in the Napoleonic Wars

The 1851 work "Napoleon's Retreat from Moscow" by 19th-century German painter Adolph Northen

The influence of cold on the course of war has a long history. Notably, Napoleon Bonaparte's 1812 Russian campaign led to the coining of the term 'Dongjanggun' (General Winter), as the cold defeated the once-invincible French army.

When the French army, which mobilized 600,000 troops, suffered massive losses and a crushing defeat, British newspapers simultaneously published articles stating that 'General Frost'?the cold?had defeated Napoleon. This term was translated into Japanese as 'Fuyushogun (冬將軍)' after Japan opened its ports, and the term Dongjanggun became known in Joseon (Korea) at that time.

In reality, modern historians believe that the collapse of Napoleon's army was more due to the scorching summer heat that year than the winter cold. While the French forces were assembling in Poland, their long supply lines and the heat made it extremely difficult to transport food, supplies, ammunition, and artillery. As the season shifted to winter during battles with Russia, severe food shortages plagued the troops. Although Napoleon's forces won battles, they ultimately lost the war.

◆History 2: Japanese Troops Marching to Manchuria Wearing Straw Shoes... Hardships Behind the 'March of Snow'

Battle of Pyongyang during the First Sino-Japanese War

Later, the Japanese army introduced the term Dongjanggun to Asia and truly suffered from 'Fuyushogun' during the First Sino-Japanese War. At that time, the Japanese military, which had only recently begun modernization, was poorly prepared for winter, contrary to illustrations. Most soldiers marched to Manchuria wearing straw shoes, enduring great hardship.

Especially after the Battle of Pyongyang in September during the First Sino-Japanese War, the troops fought through December crossing the Yalu River and the Liaodong Peninsula, battling extreme cold. The Japanese tried to glorify this as much as possible, but frontline soldiers' complaints did not subside easily. Japanese soldiers faced similar hardships during the Russo-Japanese War.

One candid account of these soldiers' hardships is the 1895 military song 'Yuki no Shingun (雪の進軍, March of Snow),' reportedly composed by a soldier named Nakai Kenji (永井建子). Despite its vigorous tone, the lyrics are brutally honest. A translation of the first verse reads:

Marching through snow, treading on ice,

Not knowing whether the path is road or river,

Unable to abandon the fallen horses,

Surrounded by enemy territory, where on earth are we?

Boldly lighting a cigarette saying 'Let it be,'

Only two cigarettes remain, adding to the unease.

The lyrics reveal the soldiers' complaints and the suffering of winter warfare. Although Japan won the war against Qing China, for the soldiers, the harsh cold in Manchuria left few good memories. It is said that after the 1941 Pearl Harbor attack, the military even banned singing this song.

◆Implication: Will the Cold Protect Russia Again? Putin Regime Overcoming Crisis

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

The Ukrainian forces, enduring the hardships of winter warfare, have become isolated as international attention wanes following the Israel-Hamas conflict. Conversely, Russia, which was facing fears of defeat, appears to be regaining composure.

Throughout this tumultuous year marked by the Ukraine war and the rebellion of the Wagner Group led by Putin's closest aide, Russian President Vladimir Putin's grip on power has solidified. He is expected to smoothly pursue a fifth term in March next year. Depending on how severe the cold becomes during this winter of extreme climate anomalies, the international situation next year is likely to undergo significant changes.