[News in War History] Putin's Middle East Intervention That Led to the 'Moscow Terror'... Why He Can't Give It Up

Putin Blaming Ukraine and the West as Backers
Over 400 Years of Russia's Middle East Involvement
The Cause of Russia's Middle East Obsession: 'Oil-Producing Economy Structure'

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

The recent Moscow terror attack in Russia has plunged the world into fear. The Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K), the Afghanistan branch of the international terrorist organization Islamic State (IS), claimed responsibility for the attack, spreading anti-Islamic sentiment not only in Russia but across Europe.

However, the Russian government, including President Vladimir Putin, has not even mentioned IS, instead directing their anger at Ukraine and the West as the masterminds behind all terrorism. There is concern that this anti-Islamic sentiment could provoke backlash from the approximately 20 million Muslims within Russia and potentially hinder the Putin administration’s carefully cultivated Middle East policy.

Russia’s Middle East intervention policy, which began in earnest in the early 19th century, has become a national project of vital importance rather than a mere power struggle. Behind this lies 'oil,' the force that sustains the Russian economy despite sanctions. In this segment, we will explore the inseparable relationship between Russia and the Middle East.

"Putin directs blame for Moscow terror at Ukraine and the West"

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

First, let’s look at the news. On the 28th (local time), according to the UK’s Sky News, the Russian Investigative Committee, which is handling the investigation of the Moscow terror incident, announced that evidence linking the terrorists to Ukraine was found. The committee stated, "The terrorists received significant amounts of cash and cryptocurrency support from Ukraine." However, no concrete evidence was presented.

Earlier, President Putin also raised suspicions that Ukraine was behind the Moscow terror attack. According to TASS news agency, on the 25th, while presiding over a government meeting, Putin said, "We need to find out why the terrorists tried to flee to Ukraine and who was waiting for them there," adding, "We must answer many questions about whether radical Islamists truly intended to attack Russia," strongly suggesting Ukrainian involvement.

Russia has gone so far as to claim that the West, including the United States and the United Kingdom, is behind the terror attack following Ukraine. The U.S. government issued a direct rebuttal. John Kirby, spokesperson for the White House National Security Council (NSC), said in a briefing on the 28th, "President Putin and Russian officials are trying to shift blame onto Ukraine and the U.S., but it is clear that IS is fully responsible for the horrific terror attack that occurred in Moscow last week."

IS-K, which immediately after the attack released videos claiming responsibility, has not even been mentioned by the Russian side. In fact, IS and Russia have deep mutual animosity due to clashes across the Middle East, including in Georgia, Syria, and the Iraq civil war.

Russia’s southward Middle East policy starting from the early 17th century... over 400 years of involvement

An illustration depicting the advance of Russian troops during the Fourth Russo-Persian War (1804?1813).

Ultimately, the prevailing view is that this terror attack is less about the Ukraine war and more about clashes with IS resulting from Russia’s Middle East expansion policy. In fact, since the early 19th century, Russia has been deeply involved in the politics and civil wars across the Middle East, including Persia (modern-day Iran), and the modern Russian Federation, following the Soviet Union, remains intricately entangled in Middle Eastern conflicts.

Russia’s direct confrontations with Middle Eastern countries date back to the 16th and 17th centuries. For about 400 years, Russia has contended with Middle Eastern states. It engaged in long-standing disputes over the Black Sea coast and the Georgian region with the Ottoman Empire, the predecessor of modern Turkey, and the Persian Empire, the predecessor of Iran.

Especially with Persia, wars were prolonged over a significant period. From the First Russo-Persian War (1651?1653) through the Second (1722?1723), Third (1796), Fourth (1804?1813), and Fifth (1826?1828) wars, Russia and Persia fought for nearly 300 years. They alternated between conflict and reconciliation, while also contending with the Ottoman Empire, essentially creating a 'Black Sea Three Kingdoms' saga.

Until the 19th century, Russia’s southward policy mainly aimed at securing an ice-free warm-water port while competing with Britain for global dominance. However, in the 20th century, Russia began to invest its very survival in deep involvement with Middle Eastern affairs, primarily because Middle Eastern countries controlled the oil supply that underpinned the Russian economy.

Post-Soviet entrenched 'oil-producing country' economic structure... Middle East stability is a lifeline

[Image source=TASS Yonhap News]

In fact, Russia has maintained a fully oil-dependent economic structure since the Soviet era. Even before the sanctions imposed due to the Ukraine war, the oil and gas industry accounted for 25% of the country’s GDP, 50% of exports, and over 30% of government revenue.

There is even a theory that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was related to the sharp drop in international oil prices in 1985. According to The Economist, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell 62%, from $30.73 per barrel in November 1985 to $11.60 in July 1986 over eight months, severely damaging the Soviet economy. Some analysts suggest that the U.S. encouraged Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia, to increase production competitively at that time.

Currently, with most Russian industries halted due to sanctions except for oil and gas exports, dependence on oil has increased further. Like Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries, Russia is expected to be unable to balance its budget if oil prices fall below $70 per barrel. As Russia’s obsession with oil deepens, its Middle East policy is expected to become more aggressive, raising concerns that Islamic extremist terrorist groups like IS will intensify their activities in Russia accordingly.